“Never let a good crisis go to waste.” – Churchill
With the Israeli conflict hitting levels not seen since 2006, the world is now considering the kinds of “second-order” effects involved here.
There’s a lot of different ways this can play out, but it really does come down to Iran.
If Iran directed the Hamas attack through Qatar, then you have casus belli (justification for war) – not just for Israel, but for the United States as well.
Strip away all the terrible acts that happened to other nationalities and just look at victims who were citizens of the US.
“At least 30 US citizens have died in Israel, a State Department official said Sunday. That number has risen by one since Saturday. The State Department is ‘also aware of 13 American nationals who are unaccounted-for,’ the spokesperson said. That number has gone down by two people since Saturday.”
Source: CNN
With that death count, that puts it in the Top 5 all time for US fatalities from a terrorist attack.
From 2004 to 2013, there were 80 Americans killed in terrorist attacks.
And the Israeli massacre is at least 30.
With that single data point, the United States absolutely has cause to respond.
It’s the magnitude of it that has me worried.
Because the US could easily send in a couple SOF units, decapitate Hamas leadership, kill a few IRGC leaders and call it a day.
Or…
They send two carrier groups into the Mediterranean with the intent to throw some cruise missiles into Tehran.
Steve Misplaced Priorities and “Hidden” Trades
(Here’s a picture of me sitting at the helm of the USS Gerald Ford, which is now ready to destroy everyone off the coast of Italy.)
The markets are waking up to some of these second order effects.
It’s how Lockheed gapped up after the terrorist attack:
Chart Misplaced Priorities and “Hidden” Trades
And how General Dynamics (GD) is continuing to push higher:
Chart Misplaced Priorities and “Hidden” Trades
Because many times, war is good for business.
And some folks in Congress seem to be profiting off the bloodshed – but not so fast!
Part of my investing process involves finding “hidden trades” from key investors that expect the price of a stock to go up.
Many try their best to follow Congressional trading, but I have to be honest with you… it’s kind of a bust.
Sure, it may be unethical to make trades when you influence political decision-making…
… but there’s not an edge in these transactions.
Trust me, I wish there were. But we’ve yet to find any solid, backtested data that says so.
Here’s an example, where Congressman Bill Keating got some exposure to Boeing a few short weeks before the terrorist attack.
Here’s the report:
Misplaced Priorities and “Hidden” Trades
See how this is a nothingburger?
The guy’s throwing in low five figures into Boeing bonds. He’s not expecting the stock to triple overnight– he’s just parking some cash into solid names like Simon Property Group and Caterpillar.
He certainly wasn’t in some backroom talking to the Deep State about how they’re all going to be billionaires after this.
Because to be honest… that kind of collusion absolutely happens, but only at the next level where billionaires and heads of state try to control the chessboard in their favor.
No, Mr. Keating doesn’t have an edge, and you can’t pull an edge from this.
But there are certain transactions that can give you a significant edge, if you know how to find and interpret them.
It’s led to stock gains of 324%, 967%, even 1,036%, through every market up and down of the past 25 years.
If you’re interested, you can watch a free training video right here where I demonstrate how it works.
