Netflix finished down over 30% after its earnings on Wednesday. It was the first time in a decade they saw a net loss in subscribers — to the tune of 200,000. That’s right: More people are leaving Netflix than are signing up right now. Some of that’s easy to explain away. There are only so […]
I think it’s fair to say that the “inflation trade” is now out in the open. Within a few months, we saw a pivot from “it’s transitory” to food riots in multiple countries. And you know what? It seems to be getting worse. We’ve got hilariously large lockdowns in Shanghai, which could lead to a […]
Before we get into the meat of this week’s Market Primer, a quick heads up: Last week, I held a free class discussing key market-moving events happening now — including inflation and war — and how to trade them going forward. If you want to get ahead of inflation and gain some peace of mind […]
The past year’s been one geopolitical blunder after another. You’ve got the botched Afghanistan withdrawal, the proxy war in Yemen… And finally, the Russia-Ukraine war in Eastern Europe. In each of these cases, some participants drastically underestimated the costs involved in a conflict. They’ve also missed the “second-order” risks involved — especially in the energy […]
SPY The markets saw a little more of a giveback this week. We were keying the 448 level to start the week — and while we did crack through it, buyers started to show up in force at the swing Anchored Volume Weighted Average Prices (AVWAPs) we had lined up. This is yet another inflection […]
If you’ve followed the past year’s macroeconomic developments, you’d know the Federal Reserve’s in a sticky situation. They denied that inflation would be structural for most of 2021 — they kept saying it would be transitory and tied it to short-term supply chain issues. Then, Powell came out in November, and the policy expectations shifted. […]
SPY The S&P put in a final stop-run this week. We’ve been keying off the 454-457 zone and expecting some selling to come back in… But it’s rarely a “clean” level to work with. Instead, we see a gap up above the level on news, finishing at the high of day… Only to see a […]
After a quiet 2021, the market finally saw a hard reset in risk assets. In hindsight, we know what drove this move: Continually sticky inflation numbers are forcing central banks to adjust their expectations on future interest rate actions, leading to a selloff in tech. The war in Ukraine added fuel to the fire, sending […]
