In the NFL, betting on league games gets you a suspension.
In Congress, betting on companies you directly oversee apparently gets you an ethics chairmanship.
That’s how it would appear, since Ethics Committee Chairman Michael Guest has actively traded energy stocks while in Congress.
How to Pick Stocks Like a Congressperson
He bought Permian Resources back in August…
Two weeks before the company made a strategic acquisition.
How to Pick Stocks Like a Congressperson
Source: Yahoo Finance
The stock is currently up about 12%.
Now, this deal had to get cleared by the federal government. Which means Congressman Guest very likely knew about this merger, and bought in two weeks before the deal cleared.
Of course, this is nothing new.
But just because we don’t enjoy the same advantages the Guests and Pelosis of the world do doesn’t mean we can’t play the same game.
A Secret to Picking Stocks Like Congress
For instance, we found a company called Kodiak Gas Services that saw a flurry of insider buys.
That was unusual because it was a recent IPO, and you don’t often see insiders buying right after a public offering – they’re normally selling.
As of this writing, we’re up 21% on this stock after four months in the trade.
In fact, it’s hitting all-time highs while crude is nearing multi-year lows. Check it out:
It’s been over a year since OpenAI released ChatGPT to the world.
The AI floodgates it opened have been revolutionary… but limited in scope. It reminds me of the homebrew computer club in Menlo Park, where Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak met.
It’s very cool tech – it just hasn’t hit mass adoption yet.
Part of that is due to the lack of competitors in the space. But that’s changing…
Faster than you think.
The Rise of “Small” AI
OpenAI is a walled garden; you can’t tweak the program, and you don’t know what training data they are using.
But just like any technology, the size and costs go down as the tech develops.
Take a look at this:
2024: The Year of Small AI
This is a screenshot of an open source AI model that’s publicly available to download.
It’s only 86 gigabytes. It takes less than 10 minutes to download, and it’s not nearly as resource intensive as some of the bigger AI models.
Remember in the mid-90s when AOL was the only internet game in town?
You would get a free trial CD at the mall or in your mailbox, and all of your internet activity would take place inside their software.
Then came along Netscape, and it opened up the world to the broader internet…
And unlocked a massive amount of value to the economy and to investors.
As AI breaks out of these walled gardens smaller companies will pop up offering faster solutions.
None of these companies are publicly traded right now…
But the “picks and shovels” are.
Our First Stab at a Small AI Play
There are companies that do well providing the infrastructure needed for these companies.
Nvidia (NVDA) is a great example (it closed 2023 up 250% on the year):
2024: The Year of Small AI
Aside from semiconductors, there’s another industry set to benefit from the AI megatrend…
Server space.
Right now, tech startups are spinning up new AI models in the cloud. That simply means they don’t directly own the servers but instead pay another company to do it for them.
The biggest player in the space is Amazon (AMZN), with their Amazon Web Services (AWS) division.
You can also get space from Microsoft or Google – but there are big risks for new tech companies looking to partner with these established players.
That’s because they’re all direct competitors now. Small startups are putting a lot on the line by hosting their AI technology on Google, Microsoft, or Amazon’s servers.
But this is also where you can find some hidden gems – tech stocks that have been beaten down and are ready to scoop up market share.
Some of these names could see triple digit gains with even a small uptick in growth…
And we’ve just found a solid investing opportunity in a name I’ve known for at least a decade.
What really tipped me off was seeing a company director purchase $50,000 worth of stock in his own account…
And if you can get in around the same price, it could be a quick double by the end of the first quarter.
It’s a classic stock strategy that’s been around for a few decades at least.
The idea is that you pick the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that either have the highest dividend yield, or the lowest P/E ratio, or the worst price performance.
By ranking stocks like this, you can see the names that have underperformed the index.
Many times there’s a good reason for the underperformance.
For example, 3M (MMM) has had a rough few years:
New Twist on a Classic Stock-Picking Strategy
There have been fundamental drivers behind this – they sold bad products to customers like the Department of Defense, and now they’re having to shell out $6 billion in a settlement.
You also need to consider how interest rate volatility has come into play.
If the 10-year Treasury is trading at 5% and a stock has a dividend yield of 3%, it’s not a very compelling investment for institutions and won’t attract capital flows.
But if you have the Fed signaling that they are going to cut rates, then these names could rally quickly into the first half of the year due to shifts in risk allocations.
Upgrading This Classic Stock Strategy
There’s a better method for vetting these names – instead of trying to nail the bottom on a high dividend stock.
Instead, look for when the corporate insiders are plowing cash into the stock.
Guys like Richard Davis:
New Twist on a Classic Stock-Picking Strategy
He’s a director at Dow Chemical. On November 16th he purchased 5,000 shares of the stock.
…Right before it launched higher.
New Twist on a Classic Stock-Picking Strategy
We’ve already picked up exposure in a healthcare and consumer stock in the Dow index using this very method.
If you want to see exactly how we do it, check out a free training video where I walk you through it step by step…
It’s the time of year where every sell-side analyst gives their clients a “crystal ball” into what’s going to happen next year.
You’ll hear about interest rates, sector themes, and hot stock picks. And then your local stock broker will just forward the PDF along to your inbox thinking they’re helping with research.
It’s all too complicated. You don’t have to worry about the macroeconomic environment or some price to earnings ratio.
It all comes down to a single question…
Are there enough institutional buyers set to drive the stock price higher?
That’s it. There’s no way your opinion will be enough to move a stock. You first need to see evidence that institutions believe a stock is a great value and is ready for a push higher.
Our #1 Investing Strategy for 2024
We use our Trading Roadmap as a way to identify those stocks, and a big component of that is the “point of control.”
The point of control is the zone where the most amount of shares have been traded. If that is clear and overwhelming on a chart, and price is trading above it, then you have very high odds that the stock is about to rocket higher.
Let’s use a case study on COIN:
The Best Investing Strategy into 2024
A few months ago, COIN was retracing a push higher, right back to its point of control.
Don’t think too hard about this – if the majority of shareholders own the stock at a good price, then they don’t have an incentive to sell. They’re sitting pretty and can simply hold onto the stock.
If there aren’t enough sellers, then the price of the stock has no choice but to go up.
The Best Investing Strategy into 2024
We managed to ride this trend and exit out of some timely call options for a 503% winner.
If you’re looking for solid names to trade into 2024, then find the stocks that have an investor base that has built out positioning and the stock is starting to turn up.
And if you’d like to learn more about the point of control and our Trading Roadmap strategy, I’ve put together a video training that breaks it all down step by step.
I’ve talked before about “mall rats” stocks that have seen improved cash flows and generally had great performances in 2023.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is up over 230% on the year.
Macy’s just started a big bounce, up 50% on the quarter.
And the retail sector ETF, XRT, has seen a hard bounce and is up nearly 12% on the year.
In fact, this stock has underperformed the sector for a while now. Here’s its performance relative to the sector:
Expect This Retail Stock to Resurge in 2024
And I get it. Every time I go into this store, I’m underwhelmed.
But that’s just me, because I don’t like shopping in department stores…
So I did some channel checks which involved asking my wife and some of the neighbors about it.
It seems that my opinion is my own, and other people love going here to shop. Who knew?
Besides being a rather boring company, it’s been a boring stock. You don’t see a lot of insiders playing this…
But when they do, it tends to be near the bottom.
Institutional and Insider Flow into This Retail Stock
I actually noticed heavy insider buying in this name way back in March.
The CEO of the company went out and purchased $2 million worth of stock in the low 20s – a serious conviction buy.
You also had some earlier buys in the 29-30 range from late 2022, and some of these company insiders also bought the crash in 2020.
That means we have a cluster buy, a high-conviction first-time buy from the CEO, and a few perfect-track-record insiders who have purchased the stock at very opportune times in the past.
It’s been nearly nine months since the insider purchase from the CEO. I avoided it because it was trading near 52 week lows and I wanted to see some improved price action and some changes in the company, and now we’re seeing both.
It’s time to buy this stock. I’ve already alerted my paid members with the full details, including what price to target for an entry, where to place stops, and a simple call option play that can amplify earning potential.
Insiders Are Buying the Blood in This Biopharma Stock
Take a look at this:
Insiders Are Buying the Blood in This Biopharma Stock
It’s one of the biggest names in the biopharmaceutical space…
And it’s down 40% off all time highs.
It’s not just this company, though. The biotech and pharma space has not performed well relative to the rest of the market.
And to add insult to injury, this company has been one of the worst performers among large cap pharma stocks.
There are a few factors driving this drop…
One is that fund flows and overall sector performance has created continued downside momentum, with the possibility that “tax loss” selling and overall positioning help drive the stock lower.
Another is interest rates.
With the Fed cranking rates above 5%, it becomes more difficult for companies to secure financing with debt instruments, which creates a poor macroeconomic backdrop for these names.
With this being a large, dividend producing company, the relative risk premium (RRP) for owning stocks relative to US Treasuries has absolutely come into play.
I do think rates have made a turn and will stabilize with potential cuts into next year, so I believe this risk for the company’s stock is decreasing.
Another potential drag on the stock is the FDA’s recent announcement of an investigation into cancer risk from CAR-T therapies.
A recent press release mentioned several specific drugs under scrutiny, including two from this company.
Finally, another of the company’s products faces patent expiration in about a year or two, which will pull down revenue as other companies release competitive formulations. I believe this is also being priced into the stock.
Upside Catalysts in This Biopharma Stock
The macro and single stock backdrop look terrible – a conflagration of risks and rolloffs that have led to the stock’s decline.
But all of that is in the rear-view mirror, and markets are pretty good at discounting bad information, especially near the end of a selloff.
Plus, there are several upside catalysts that could help this stock springboard back to life.
First, the company just authorized a $3 billion stock repurchase program, which increases their buyback authorization from $2B to $5B.
If they were to spend all that cash in a single buy at current prices, it would be about 100 million shares. The total shares outstanding are around 2 billion, so that would be a 5% buyback. Not a ton on a percentage basis, but enough to move the needle… and it allows the company to defend their stock if it drops to lower prices.
The board also recently authorized a dividend increase, putting its dividend yield on the stock at 4.8% annualized. This doesn’t matter as much in the current rate environment, but if rates start to drop, then the RRP improves and can bring more cash into the stock.
Finally, the most telling sign is the two company insiders buying shares right now.
One is the CEO, who was previously an executive vice president at the firm.
He just made his first open market purchase, scooping up over $146,000 worth of stock.
The second buy is from a company director. He’s in for $423,000.
The fact that both of these guys are buying at the same time – and that it’s the first time for either of them making personal stock purchases – is a huge tell.
It’s the first insider activity we’ve seen at this company since 2019…
And take a look at how previous insider purchases have worked out:
Insiders Are Buying the Blood in This Biopharma Stock
I’ve already sent the full buy alert to my members…
So if you want to learn more about this strategy – including the legality of it all, how we track these insider purchases, and how we’ve done with this strategy in the past…
Our Stock Roadmap Is Serving Up End-of-Year Profits (Plus Two New Opportunities)
We’re sliding into the home stretch of 2023 with some serious gains thanks to our stock roadmap strategy…
Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN) has gone parabolic on some crypto-related catalysts.
There’s regulatory burdens that could be eased soon with the introduction of a spot ETF, and their largest competitors have all ended up in jail, which helps increase our moat.
We’re currently sitting on a 51% open gain on the stock in less than four weeks.
And our call option play has done even better. We’ve already peeled profits of 91% and 385%, and have rolled into a new contract to take advantage of further upside potential.
Meanwhile, our option play on PDD Holdings (Nasdaq: PDD) handed us a 139% gain in October…
Plus a 608% gain that we’ve also rolled into a new contract.
We caught a beautiful move on an earnings event, and it can easily drift higher from here.
If you missed out on those opportunities, don’t worry…
Two Fresh Plays from Our Stock Roadmap
As the markets continue to stay elevated with the help of mega cap tech stocks, one theme we’re trading is the “FOMO Fund Manager Rotation.”
There’s a lot of institutional capital that has underperformed this year because they weren’t overweight in Mag 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia… you know the names).
Now they’ve got to play catchup and try and chase some stocks higher.
The best way to find these names are stocks that have built out a massive “point of control” that builds energy and creates the best chance for a large push higher…
Which is exactly where our stock roadmap comes into play.
I’ve just issued new trade alerts to my paid members in two names that are poised to run on this trend.